ITU-BDT Regional Seminar on ITUFixed Mobile Convergence and Guidelines on the smooth transition of existing mobile networks to IMT-2000 IMT-
Session 3.2.1 Trends for Fixed and Mobile users growth based on statistics data for ICT Indicators
Ignat Stanev
ITU/ITC Regional Seminar Nairobi (Kenya), 9-12 May 2005 Session 3.2.1 - 1
Networks Evolution Factors
User behaviour and usage trends General technology advancements Evolution of core and access networks Evolution of terminals Society
Visions & Scenarios
Economic trends Business
Merging top-down visions/scenarios & bottom–up technical challenges
Individual technical aspects
Technology development
Architecture and topology
Protocols evolution
Management
……..
Session 3.2.1 - 2
ITU/ITC Regional Seminar
Nairobi (Kenya), 9-12 May 2005
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Mobile and Fixed users
1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 1982 85 88 91 94 97 2000 03
Mobile Fixed World telephone subscribers, millions
(1.4 B)
ITU/ITC Regional Seminar
Nairobi (Kenya), 9-12 May 2005
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Worldwide fixed and mobile subscribers
Worldwide fixed-line and mobile telephone subscribers, millions
2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Source: TMG, Inc. (2004 estimate and 2005 forecast).
ITU/ITC Regional Seminar
Mobile
• Mobile passed fixed in 2002 globally; since then the gap has grown • Today almost every country has more mobile than fixed line subscribers
Fixed
Michael Minges, World Telecom/ICT Indicators Meeting Geneva, Switzerland 10-11 February 2005
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Impact of Cellular mobile development on the Fixed network:
The impact of the Cellular mobile development on the fixed network is based on the statistics for: Fixed network teledensity Percentage of residential lines Cellular mobile teledensity The compound annual network growth of the telephone lines and the mobile subscribers could also serve as indicator
ITU/ITC Regional Seminar Nairobi (Kenya), 9-12 May 2005 Session 3.2.1 - 5
Impact of Cellular mobile on Fixed network Fixed and Cellular mobile network growth
Network growth (compound annual growth rate in %) Low Income Lower Middle Income Upper Middle Income High Income Africa Americas Asia Europe Oceania WORLD New telephone lines added 1997-2002 New mobile subscribers added 1997-2002
12,5 14,4 4,4 1,2 6,0 2,3 11,8 2,6 0,4 5,3
76,5 67,6 57,4 29,9 74,9 28,7 43,3 46,3 24,3 40,2
World telecommunication/ ICT indicators ITU Database
CAGR is computed by the formula: [(Pv / P0) (1/n) ]–1 Pv = Present value P0 = Beginning value n = Number of periods
ITU/ITC Regional Seminar
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Fixed and mobile users growth (high income) :
M ain fixe d line s 100.00 90.00 80.00 70.00 60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 Italy Spain Sw eden Norw ay
2001
2002
2003
120.00 100.00 80.00 60.00 40.00 20.00 0.00
M obile subscribers
Italy Spain Sweden Norway
2001
2002
2003
ITU/ITC Regional Seminar
Nairobi (Kenya), 9-12 May 2005
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Impact of Cellular mobile on Fixed network
Case of Italy: 1,4 % CAGR for fixed network , 35,2 % CAGR for mobile network for 1997-2002 Year 1997: fixed network teledensity 44,79 % , residential lines 76,5 % cellular mobile teledensity 20.46 % Year 2003: fixed network teledensity 48,40 % , residential lines 79,2 % (2001) cellular mobile teledensity 101.76 %
ITU/ITC Regional Seminar Nairobi (Kenya), 9-12 May 2005 Session 3.2.1 - 8
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Case of Norway:
Comparison of traffic for fixed line telephony and mobile telephony
Traffic minutes for fixed line telephony
Internet Internet from fixed Voice from mobile Mobile
Voice from fixed Fixed
Traffic minutes for mobile telephones
• ratio fixed / mobile – above 3 / 1
ITU/ITC Regional Seminar Nairobi (Kenya), 9-12 May 2005 Session 3.2.1 - 9
Long term / strategic network planning :
Based on long-term forecasting - for urban, sub areas, populated places, etc.
y (e.g. no. of subscribers) Saturation limit Logistic or Gompertz' trend
Demand
long-term forecast
medium-term forecast bridging Time
Linear trend
Exponential trend 0
Beginning interval Average interval
Time
Demand/service forecasting uses different methods, including trend methods based on saturation limit
Saturation interval
Problem: how to define a saturation limit
ITU/ITC Regional Seminar Nairobi (Kenya), 9-12 May 2005 Session 3.2.1 - 10
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Fixed network users potential
Highly developed countries (close to saturation):
Country Population (in thousands) 19,157 30,750 58,892 82,260 57,298 126,919 3,831 47,300 40,600 8,881 7,204 59,766 275,130 Teledensity [%] 53,86 63,45 56,89 65,08 48,07 55,83 44,81 48,86 50,62 68,20 74,42 59,086 64,58 Average household size 2,64 2,65 2,46 2,16 2,71 2,70 2,91 3,04 3,25 2,22 2,39 2,38 2,58 Teledensity per household [%] 101,2 98,2 94,0 95,5 96,9 116,8 103,0 105,5 100,8 98,7 99,6 93,0 94,1 Percent of residential lines 75,0 63,9 69,2 77,0 79,2 75,8 78,5 74,1 83,5 67,9 60,0 71,0 67,6 Australia Canada France Germany Italy Japan New Zealand Republic of Korea Spain Sweden Switzerland United Kingdom United States of America
• teledensity per house-hold about 100%
ITU/ITC Regional Seminar
•ratio residential to business from 2 / 1 to 3 / 1
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Nairobi (Kenya), 9-12 May 2005
Simple method to evaluate fixed subscribers potential :
Assumptions: Teledensity per household in the highly developed countries - around 100% (one connection per household) Ratio residential to business subscribers - in the range 2 to 1 - 3 to 1 , possibly depending on the strength of the economy Note: Average household size in the highly developed countries - between 2 and 3 Simple method: Fixed network subscribers potential is number of households increased by 1/3 for high potential economies or by 1/4 for others
ITU/ITC Regional Seminar Nairobi (Kenya), 9-12 May 2005 Session 3.2.1 - 12
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Application of the simple method for evaluating fixed network users potential :
Bulgaria : 2,9 Million households (2,7 HH size) - potential of 3,9 Million fixed subscribers (50 % teledensity) – 38,0 % teledensity now* China : 347 Million households (3,7 HH size ) – potential of 462 Million fixed subscribers (36 % teledensity) – 16,7 % teledensity now * South Africa : 10,2 Million households (4,5 HH size) – potential of 13,6 Million fixed subscribers (30 % teledensity) – 11,0 % teledensity now * Russia: 52 Million households (2,8 HH size) – potential of 78 Million fixed subscribers (53 % teledensity) – 24,2 % teledensity now *
ITU/ITC Regional Seminar Nairobi (Kenya), 9-12 May 2005 Session 3.2.1 - 13
* Available WTID data
Cellular mobile network users potential
Highly developed countries:
Country Australia Canada France Germany Italy Japan New Zealand Republic of Korea Spain Sweden Switzerland United Kingdom United States Population
(in thousands)
Population below 6 [%] 4,5 4,6 5,1 -
Population above 80 [%] 4,0 3,8 5,0 -
Cellular mobile Teledensity [%] 71,9 41,7 69,60 78,5 101,8 68,0 64,8 69,4 91,6 88,9 84,3 84,1 54,3
19,662 31,414 59,637 82,537 56,464 127,440 3,939 47,600 40,683 8,943 7,281 59,088 288,370
• teledensity above 90%, related to population brake down
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Mobile subscribers - EU
ITU/ITC Regional Seminar
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Mobile subscribers
Mobile subscribers per 100 inhabitants, 2003
125 100 75 Taiwan Hong Kong Israel Original Adjusted
Important to be precise about subscribers in countries already exceeding 100 %
100 95 90 85 80
Finland Sweden Norway Mobile penetration Mobile use
– Taiwan: 20-30% have 2nd SIM card – Hong Kong: 24% of prepaid non-active – Israel: ~ 20% double counted (due to churn and “liberal” counting policies) or nonresident subscribers
Age ranges for mobile use: • Finland: 15-74 • Sweden: 16-75 • Norway: 9-79
Source: TMG, Inc. adapted from national regulatory & national statistical agencies. Session 3.2.1 - 16
ITU/ITC Regional Seminar
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Mobile penetration - Africa
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ITU/ITC Regional Seminar
Nairobi (Kenya), 9-12 May 2005
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Simple method to evaluate cellular mobile network users potential :
Assumptions: Cellular mobile Teledensity in the highly developed countries - in a range 40% to 90% ( one case above 100%) Individual usage of the network obviously related to the population volume Possible correlation with population brake down by age - e.g. All above 6 and below 80 are users Simple method: Cellular mobile network users potential is related to population brake down by age excluding only unable/unwilling to use telecommunications, e.g. age below 6 and above 80
ITU/ITC Regional Seminar Nairobi (Kenya), 9-12 May 2005 Session 3.2.1 - 18
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Cellular mobile network users potential
Case of Spain :
Cellular mobile teledensity from ITU database - 91.6 % Correlation with population - brake down by age
4,6 % of population below 6 3,8 % of population above 80
• user potential of about 91,6 % expected
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ITU/ITC Regional Seminar
Teledensity statistics for some LDCs
Country Total number of subscribers Total teledensity [%] Mobile teledensity [%] Teledensity per household [%]
Angola Eritrea Ethiopia Guinea Lesotho Malawi Myanmar Tanzania Solomon Islands
215,000 38,078 532,830 137,670 125,450 220,110 423,840 1,040,300 7,600
1,54 0,92 0,77 1,78 5,79 2,1 0,85 2,95 1,71
0,93 0,0 0,14 1,44 4,47 1,29 0,13 2,52 0,31
-
1,3 5,6 2,0 -
ITU/ITC Regional Seminar
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User behaviour and usage trends
Findings of the United Nations : all growth in population will concentrate in urban areas, no growth in rural areas most of the growth will concentrate in urban areas of less developed regions Users will concentrate in urban areas, as areas, urban areas put higher pressure on the individual to "do what the others do" and from technical point it is easier to connect people in urban areas
ITU/ITC Regional Seminar Nairobi (Kenya), 9-12 May 2005 Session 3.2.1 - 21
Teledensity statistics for largest cities
Population as % of total Large city teledensity [%] Rest of country teledensity [%] Overall teledensity [%]
Low Income Lower Middle Income Upper Middle Income High Income
6,0 5,8 16,1 10,8
9,26 24,84 30,77 57,49
2,15 7,30 21,10 54,83
2,54 8,77 22,94 55,21
1 : 4,3 1 : 3,4 1 : 1,5 1 : 1,05
Africa Americas Asia Europe Oceania WORLD
12 13,6 4,8 10,9 17,8 7,7
6,42 34,8 25,97 48,24 45,97 17,4
1,39 21,72 6,94 30,19 36,77 25,25
1,99 11,39 7,84 31,98 38,38 9,20
ITU WTID 2002
ITU/ITC Regional Seminar Nairobi (Kenya), 9-12 May 2005 Session 3.2.1 - 22
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Rural network development
Conclusions based on the above data: Big gap between large cities and rural areas in low and middle income countries Low Income: 9,3 % teledensity versus 2,1 % Middle Income: 24,8% teledensity versus 7,3 %
ITU/ITC Regional Seminar Nairobi (Kenya), 9-12 May 2005 Session 3.2.1 - 23
EU Project - Broadband for All
• To develop the network technologies and
architectures allowing a generalised and affordable availability of broadband access to European users, including those in less developed regions, peripheral and rural areas. • Optimised access technologies, as a function of the operating environment, at affordable price allowing for a generalized introduction of broadband services in Europe including less developed regions
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Broadband connection – households(EU)
ITU/ITC Regional Seminar
Nairobi (Kenya), 9-12 May 2005
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Broadband connection – enterprises(EU)
Connected to exchange with support of xDSLtechnology, cable network upgraded for Internet, or other broadband technologies.
ITU/ITC Regional Seminar
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Broadband fixed connection – high income
Countries Australia Austria Belgium Canada Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Iceland Ireland Italy Japan Korea (Rep. of) Luxembourg Netherlands New Zealand Norway Portugal Spain Sweden Switzerland United Kingdom United States Total Population 19941000 8073000 10372000 31720000 5393500 5219000 59900000 82510000 11457000 289000 4025300 54952000 127520000 48424000 451500 16285000 4009600 4580600 10336000 40940000 8976100 7317700 58117000 292300000 913109300 DSL Internet 372000 261000 518920 2170000 473480 405700 2967400 4500000 360 40419 25300 2200000 11197000 6436000 5697 920000 39000 308520 184340 1562500 421400 487000 854000 9333000 45683036 Cable modem Internet 215400 340000 353480 2483000 243600 85400 393850 60000 0 0 4900 0 2578000 3828200 130 930000 4500 69734 315580 571710 2352900 350000 960000 15777000 31917384
8.5 % penetration for end of 2003
ITU/ITC Regional Seminar
Nairobi (Kenya), 9-12 May 2005
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Broadband Mobile subscribers
Top 10 countries by mobile multimedia users as % of population, 2003
Spain Norway Finland UK German Sweden Singapo France S.Kore Japan
% Mobile subscribers using 3G, 2003
100%
0
10
20
30
50%
New Zealand Korea (Rep.) India Canada
0%
USA
http://reports.tmgtelecom.com/ssmi
WCDMA
Japan
EVDO
1X
ITU/ITC Regional Seminar
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Density statistics for Information technology :
Internet hosts per 10 000 inhabitants
IT density as bases for new services requiring PC/Internet access
Internet users per 10 000 inhabitants PCs per 100 inhabitants
Low Income Lower Middle Income Upper Middle Income High Income
0,98 4,32 78,69 1 484,20 3,38 1 332,97 28,73 191,47 885,26 232,66
62,21 264,94 992,66 3 992,87 84,89 2 164,28 433,97 1 804,54 2 771,59 820,81
0,59 2,45 8,24 37,31 1,06 26,57 2,18 17,94 39,91 7,74
Africa Americas Asia Europe Oceania WORLD
Ratio Low Income/High Income :
ITU/ITC Regional Seminar
1 : 64 1 : 15
1 : 63 1 : 15
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Nairobi (Kenya), 9-12 May 2005
Millennium Development Goals - trends 1990-2003
Telephone lines and cellular subscribers per 100 population Personal computers in use per 100 population Internet users per 100 population
1990
2003
1990
2003
1990
2003
World Developed regions Developing regions
ITU/ITC Regional Seminar
10 38 2
41 125 25
2 9 <1
10 45 3
<1 <1 0
11 45 5
Source: World Telecommunication Indicators Database
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IT penetration in some countries from Africa Region :
Country Angola Botswana Cameroon Central African Rep. Chad Congo (Democratic Republic of the) Congo Eritrea Ethiopia Ghana Kenya Lesotho Madagascar Mozambique Namibia Nigeria Sudan Swaziland Tanzania Uganda Zambia Zimbabwe South Africa Population 14,358,000 1,760,000 16,258,000 4,140,000 8,084,000 52,771,000 3,500,000 4,151,000 69,363,000 22,444,000 31,708,000 2,174,000 16,340,000 18,831,000 1,924,000 123,314,000 33,286,000 1,044,000 35,313,000 25,599,000 11,195,000 11,765,000 46,365,000 Personal computers 27,000 70,000 90,000 8,000 13,000 15,000 12,000 150,000 82,000 204,000 80,000 82,000 191,100 853,000 200,000 30,000 200,000 102,500 95,000 620,000 3,300,000
Internet users per 100 inhabitants
0.29 3.49 0.38 0.13 0.19 0.09 0.43 0.23 0.11 0.78 1.27 0.97 0.43 0.28 3.38 0.61 0.9 2.59 0.71 0.49 0.61 4.3 6.82
High Income:
39.93
ITU/ITC Regional Seminar Nairobi (Kenya), 9-12 May 2005 Session 3.2.1 - 31
Conclusion for user behaviour and usage trends
There is still considerable potential of telecom users in the world, most of all in the developing countries Users in the developing countries are concentrated and will continue to concentrate in urban areas Traditional voice service is expected to dominate in the developing countries for the low density of Information technology
ITU/ITC Regional Seminar
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